Source: Richie Southerton

THEMES

Climate Change

Climate change is the most significant environmental challenge facing governments and communities around the world. This challenge will require the ACT Government and community to adapt to a changing environment and undertake preventative actions to build resilience and minimise impacts on our natural and urban environments. In recognition of the need for urgent action, the ACT Government declared a state of climate emergency in May 2019.

This section provides an assessment of climate change in the ACT including current and projected trends in temperature and rainfall, the impacts of climate change on the human and natural environments, and trends in the ACT’s greenhouse gas emissions. Global climate change trends are not discussed.

The following indicators are assessed:

Climate change is discussed throughout the indicator themes. Information on the impacts of current and future climate change on specific aspects of the environment can be found in each relevant section.

For background information on climate change in the ACT see Background: Climate change

The impacts of climate change on the 2019–20 bushfire season are also discussed in 4. Bushfires in the ACT.

That the ACT Government: 

ACTION 1.

Implement a methodology to report annually on scope 3 emissions for the ACT.

ACTION 2.

Investigate and implement measures to reduce transport emissions through targeting public and active transport.

ACTION 3.

Improve knowledge of the impacts of climate change across urban and natural environments to inform strategies on climate adaptation and resilience.

ACTION 4.

Increase living infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of climate change in urban areas.

ACTION 5.

Assess and monitor carbon stocks and investigate opportunities to increase carbon sequestration in natural ecosystems and urban environments.

CC1: Climate trends

CONDITION

TREND

DATA QUALITY

Climate change is having a significant impact on the ACT. Long-term data provides clear evidence of a warming climate with the increased occurrence of hot days and extended periods of below average rainfall. Although recent La Niña years have been cooler and wetter, projections are for a warming and drier climate for the ACT in the future.

CC2: Impacts of climate change

CONDITION

TREND

DATA QUALITY

Climate change is already impacting on the ACT’s community, economy, and the natural environment. Observed changes include increases in tree mortality, soil erosion, air pollution, impacts on water quality, recreational water closures, and extended periods of reduced river flows and water resources. The ACT’s warming climate, combined with periods of below average rainfall, is increasing fire risk and was a significant factor in the severity of the 2020 bushfires.

CC3: Greenhouse gas emissions

CONDITION

TREND

DATA QUALITY

This assessment excludes scope 3 emissions which are not reported for the ACT.

With a 47% reduction in total emissions between 1990 and 2021–22, the ACT met its legislated 2020 emissions target and has nearly reached the 2025 target of a 50–60% reduction. Most of the emissions reductions are from the achievement of 100% renewable electricity since 2020. Annual per capita emissions have also decreased by 67% between 1990 and 2021–22.

In 2021–22, 58% of emissions came from transport and 24% from stationary energy (mostly natural gas, does not include electricity). Although these sectors are the focus for future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, there have been no significant reductions in either sector since 2012–13. The growth in emissions from diesel vehicles is of particular concern, contributing 40% of total transport emissions in 2021–22 compared to 23% in 2012–13.

CONDITION


Environmental condition is healthy across the ACT, OR pressure likely to have negligible impact on environmental condition/human health.

Environmental condition is neither positive or negative and may be variable across the ACT, OR pressure likely to have limited impact on environmental condition/human health.

Environmental condition is under significant stress, OR pressure likely to have significant impact on environmental condition/ human health.

Data is insufficient to make an assessment of status and trends.

TREND


DATA QUALITY


Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus.

Limited evidence or limited consensus.

Evidence and consensus too low to make an assessment.

Assessments of status, trends and data quality are not appropriate for the indicator.

Climate trends

Projected climate trends

Observed impacts of climate change

Total and per capita greenhouse gas emissions

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions

Context

The ACT is responding to climate change with two policy approaches — reducing its own scope 1 and scope 2 greenhouse emissions and developing strategies to adapt to the changed climatic conditions which are projected for the future. As a small jurisdiction with a population of less than half a million people, the ACT is well-placed to trial approaches to emissions reduction which may be useful to other governments seeking to employ them at a larger scale.

This section will focus predominantly on policy and legislation related to climate change adaptation. For more information about the ACT Government’s approach to addressing the Territory’s carbon emissions refer to Human Settlements.

It should be noted that scope 3 emissions, which make up 94% of ACT’s carbon footprint, are not directly addressed through ACT Government policy at this time. This is a major policy gap.

Policy framework

The Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010 legislates the ACT’s target to achieve net zero carbon emissions by June 2045, and outlines some of the ways this will be achieved. It also establishes the Climate Change Council to advise the Minister on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The ACT’s Climate Change Strategy 201925 is the main policy instrument for implementing the ACT’s climate change reduction actions. It articulates a vision that “By 2045 the ACT will be a leading net zero emissions territory that demonstrates that a healthier, smarter future is possible”. It spells out the emission reduction targets to 2045 and identifies the actions to meet them. It also recognises that “Despite efforts to reduce emissions, the ACT community will experience an increasingly extreme and unpredictable climate”.

The Climate Change Strategy 2019-25 aims to embed the consideration of climate change in both Government and community decision-making. It specifies actions across different sectors (transport, built environment, natural environment, waste) and across different stakeholders (communities, businesses and the government). The actions are directed at combatting the drivers and impacts of climate change through reducing emissions, and increasing community resilience through adaptation measures. It seeks to leverage co-benefits to community such as cost savings, comfortable homes, and a more liveable city. It recognises that a collaborative approach with local communities and businesses is essential to get to net zero.

Canberra’s Living Infrastructure Plan: Cooling the City 2019 is a climate adaptation plan which aims to protect and enhance the city’s natural assets to create a climate-wise, prosperous and healthy city. It identifies challenges from climate change, urban growth and declining urban forests. It sets out a target to enhance Canberra’s urban environment with 30% tree canopy cover and 30% permeable surfaces by 2045, and actions to achieve this target through a series of programs that look at asset management systems, microclimate assessments, landscape plans, and demonstration projects for city cooling, local park upgrades, shade ways and urban design.

The Urban Forest Strategy 2021–2045 helps plan out the path to achieve some of the Living Infrastructure Plan target of 30% canopy cover by 2045. It sets out the ACT Government’s vision for a resilient and sustainable urban forest that supports a liveable city and the natural environment and contributes to the wellbeing of the community in a changing climate. The objectives of the strategy are to protect urban forests, enhance tree cover, balance and diversify the urban forests, support biodiversity, develop infrastructure to support the urban forest and partner with the community to grow and maintain them.

In 2021 the ACT Government established the Office of the Coordinator General for Climate Action to coordinate and support the ACT Government’s ambitious agenda for climate action. Their role includes looking at policy and planning reform and facilitating some of the larger programs promised under the Climate Change Strategy 201925. The other responsibilities for delivery on the actions are split primarily across EPSDD, Community Services Directorate and the TCCS Directorate.

The ACT Government has also implemented a range of rules, incentives, and programs to support electrification, energy efficiency and local renewable energy. These include:

In particular, the focus on equity and low-income households to ensure programs in this area are not exclusionary is an area of strength for the ACT.

A Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard for Rental Properties (the Standard) in the ACT was introduced on 1 April 2023 under the Residential Tenancies Act 1997. The Standard requires all rental homes in the ACT to meet a new minimum energy efficiency standard for ceiling insulation. It intends to address the issue that many renters in the ACT are living in poor quality housing that is expensive to heat and cool, and does not meet community expectations around having a suitable home to help maintain health, comfort, security and wellbeing.

In 2019, a discussion paper was released on the ACT’s Sustainable Energy Policy for 2020–2025. Based on available information, the policy remains under review following the close of public comment. This means there does not appear to have been an energy policy in place following the expiry of the previous policy in 2020. The ACT has continued to develop and implement energy programs without an overarching energy policy framework.

The ACT Transport Strategy 2020 is an important complementary document to the Climate Change Strategy 201925, recognising that transport is the major contributor to the ACT’s greenhouse gas emissions. It discusses a range of ways to reduce vehicle emissions, ranging from encouraging active travel and use of public transport through to incentivising the purchase of zero emissions vehicles. The ACT’s Zero Emissions Vehicles Strategy 2022–30 and its predecessor the Zero Emissions Vehicles Action Plan 2018–2021 provide more detail on how a transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles will be achieved. An Active Travel Plan to encourage walking and cycling is also in the final stages of development. Within government, the public transport vehicle fleet will shift to zero emissions over the next 20 years guided by the Zero Emissions Transition Plan for Transport Canberra 2020.

Policy Effectiveness

The ACT has seen success in a number of its policy interventions to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. 

An independent review[10] of the Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010 conducted in 2021 found that it had been highly effective in allowing the ACT Government to set the groundwork for action, develop policy and successfully meet emissions reduction and renewable energy targets. In addition, the legislation was found to be appropriate to meet ACT’s climate objectives to 2030 and beyond. The interim targets have been particularly effective as per the review, as seen with the 2020 target of 40% emission reduction.

Each financial year, the Minister for Water, Energy and Emissions Reduction must prepare a report[11] to identify actions taken during the year to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This report also captures data, monitors and reports on the progress of the Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025. The most recent report shows that progress has been made on many of the policy measures proposed in the Strategy particularly those on behaviour change in community and businesses, partnerships and capacity building. Many of the proposed planning and legislative changes are in progress. Initiatives relating to waste and biodiversity are well advanced or already in place. Some climate-wise built environment initiatives and just transition initiatives appear to have been delayed.

Addressing climate change drivers and reducing climate impacts will require multiple actions across various policy areas. Consideration needs to be given to the expected outcomes of each action, their contribution to broader government objectives and the ways in which outcomes complement each other. The ACT Transport Strategy 2020 is an example of where this has been done well, as it was developed in coordination with the ACT Planning Strategy 2018 and Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025. This co-development recognises the critical partnership between transport and land use to meet the objectives for the ACT Government established in the 2016 Canberra: A Statement of Ambition. Perhaps because of this coordinated approach, there are a number of achievements in the transport/climate change domain including:

The various policies, programs and financial incentives in place to encourage uptake of zero emissions vehicles appear to be having a tangible effect, as the number of these vehicles is increasing steadily. Since 2019, electric vehicle numbers have roughly doubled annually and in the first half of 2023 one in five newly registered vehicles were electric (see Human settlementsIndicator HS4: Transport). 

Many of the policies and strategies relating to climate adaptation are relatively new and will have long timeframes to reach their goals and measure their effectiveness. The challenges of implementing this work can be seen for example in the planting of trees as part of the Urban Forest Strategy 2021–2045, which is highly dependent on external factors such as weather conditions, contractor availability and supply of planting stock. Even with optimal planting conditions it will take many years for the trees to grow before it can be determined whether canopy targets and anticipated cooling effects are realised.

In response to the need for climate adaptation for our native biodiversity, Conservation Research in EPSDD is commencing a Climate Adaptation for Nature framework. This framework is intended to support adaptive management of the environment to try and address some of the impacts of climate change on local species and ecosystems.

Asset upgrades and replacements similarly have long timeframes and lifespans, and it will be important to ensure that ACT Government invests in future-proof public infrastructure that will be fit for purpose in an altered climate. The Minister for Climate Action noted during hearings for the Select Committee on Estimates 2023–2024 that “there is not a comprehensive…single climate mitigation or adaptation framework [for government assets] at this point”.

Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions,[12] which make up around 94% of ACT’s carbon footprint, are not directly addressed through ACT Government policy at this time. This is a major policy gap as it means that the ACT’s net zero emissions target does not give any consideration to the vast majority of emissions for which the ACT is responsible.