Introduction
Climate change is the most significant environmental challenge facing governments and communities around the world. This challenge will require the ACT Government and community to adapt to a changing environment and undertake preventative actions to build resilience and minimise impacts on our natural and urban environments. In recognition of the need for urgent action, the ACT Government declared a state of climate emergency in May 2019.
This section provides an assessment of climate change in the ACT including current and projected trends in temperature and rainfall, the impacts of climate change on the human and natural environments, and trends in the ACT’s greenhouse gas emissions. Global climate change trends are not discussed.
The following indicators are assessed:
Climate change is discussed throughout the indicator themes. Information on the impacts of current and future climate change on specific aspects of the environment can be found in each relevant section.
For background information on climate change in the ACT see Background: Climate change.
The impacts of climate change on the 2019–20 bushfire season are also discussed in 4. Bushfires in the ACT.
Key findings
Key actions
That the ACT Government:
ACTION 1.
Implement a methodology to report annually on scope 3 emissions for the ACT.
ACTION 2.
Investigate and implement measures to reduce transport emissions through targeting public and active transport.
ACTION 3.
Improve knowledge of the impacts of climate change across urban and natural environments to inform strategies on climate adaptation and resilience.
ACTION 4.
Increase living infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of climate change in urban areas.
ACTION 5.
Assess and monitor carbon stocks and investigate opportunities to increase carbon sequestration in natural ecosystems and urban environments.
Indicator assessments
CC1: Climate trends
CONDITION

TREND

DATA QUALITY

Climate change is having a significant impact on the ACT. Long-term data provides clear evidence of a warming climate with the increased occurrence of hot days and extended periods of below average rainfall. Although recent La Niña years have been cooler and wetter, projections are for a warming and drier climate for the ACT in the future.
CC2: Impacts of climate change
CONDITION

TREND

DATA QUALITY

Climate change is already impacting on the ACT’s community, economy, and the natural environment. Observed changes include increases in tree mortality, soil erosion, air pollution, impacts on water quality, recreational water closures, and extended periods of reduced river flows and water resources. The ACT’s warming climate, combined with periods of below average rainfall, is increasing fire risk and was a significant factor in the severity of the 2020 bushfires.
CC3: Greenhouse gas emissions
CONDITION

TREND

DATA QUALITY

This assessment excludes scope 3 emissions which are not reported for the ACT.
With a 47% reduction in total emissions between 1990 and 2021–22, the ACT met its legislated 2020 emissions target and has nearly reached the 2025 target of a 50–60% reduction. Most of the emissions reductions are from the achievement of 100% renewable electricity since 2020. Annual per capita emissions have also decreased by 67% between 1990 and 2021–22.
In 2021–22, 58% of emissions came from transport and 24% from stationary energy (mostly natural gas, does not include electricity). Although these sectors are the focus for future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, there have been no significant reductions in either sector since 2012–13. The growth in emissions from diesel vehicles is of particular concern, contributing 40% of total transport emissions in 2021–22 compared to 23% in 2012–13.
Click the links below to explore the full analysis of conditions and trends for each indicator
Data summaries
Climate trends
- Over the reporting period (2019–20 to 2022–23), the ACT’s climate experienced wide variation from the extremely hot and dry conditions of 2019–20, to the above average rainfall and cooler maximum temperatures that followed.
- Long-term trends show that the ACT’s climate is getting warmer. Observations include:
- annual mean maximum temperatures increased by 1.8°C from 1914 to 2022
- the number of days above 35°C increased by around six more days per year from 1914 to 2022
- six of the nine years from 2013 to 2022 experienced days above 40°C, compared to just six years from 1926 to 2012
- nine out of the ten hottest years in the ACT have occurred since 2006
- the ACT’s hottest day on record occurred on 4 January 2020 when the temperature reached 44°C
- 2019 was the hottest year on record for the ACT and had 33 days over 35°C and six over 40°C
- annual mean minimum temperatures have increased by around 2.2°C from 1914 to 2022
- with the exception of 2022, annual mean maximum temperatures have been above the 1961 to 1990 average every year since 1997
- six of the ten warmest mean minimum years have occurred since 2007, and
- the annual number of nights below 0°C has decreased by around 28 — a 30% decrease from 1914 to 2022.
- Rainfall is variable in the ACT region, with no long-term trend. Three La Niña years from 2020 to 2022 resulted in above average rainfall across the ACT.
Projected climate trends
- Regional climate modelling suggests the following projections: reduced rainfall, particularly for winter and spring; more frequent and prolonged drought; increased average temperatures (day and night) in all seasons; days above 35°C will increase with up to an additional five hot days per year by 2030 and 20 more by 2070; more frequent and severe storms with flash flooding, violent winds and thunderstorms; and an increase in severe fire weather and fire risk.
Observed impacts of climate change
- There is a significant increase in climate impacts and risks to ACT’s community, economy and the natural environment.
- The severity of the ACT’s 2020 bushfires has been linked to the warmer temperatures and periods of below average rainfall associated with climate change.
- The number of consecutive fire seasons with elevated fire severity risk is increasing and fire seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer.
- There is an increase in tree dieback and mortality across the ACT, including urban trees. This may suggest that climate conditions in the ACT region are no longer suitable for some tree species.
- The loss of ground cover vegetation caused by heat and drought, combined with more severe storms, is increasing the severity of soil erosion and degrading soil health. Such conditions are also increasing the occurrence of dust storms.
- Despite the increased rainfall during the La Niña years from 2020 to 2022, inflows to water storages were below the long-term average for all but two years between 2001–02 and 2019–20. The occurrence of El Niño conditions is likely to reduce water resources in the future.
- There are increasing impacts on water quality and aquatic ecosystems through elevated water temperatures, nutrients and sedimentation. This has led to more frequent cyanobacterial blooms in Canberra’s lakes and has also impacted on the ecosystem health of other waterways including urban and non-urban rivers and creeks.
Total and per capita greenhouse gas emissions
- In 2021–22, the ACT’s total emissions were 1,647 thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e), a reduction of 47% since 1990.
- The ACT’s total and per capita emissions dropped by 55% between 2018–19 and 2019–20 in response to the ACT reaching its 100% renewable electricity supply target.
- With the elimination of electricity emissions, the ACT met its legislated 2020 target to reduce emissions to 40% of 1990 levels.
- The ACT has nearly achieved its 2025 emissions target of a 50%–60% reduction from 1990 levels.
- The annual per capita emissions were 3.6 tonnes of CO2-e in 2021–22, a 67% decrease from 1990. From 2019–20 to 2021–22, per capita emissions fell by nearly 8%.
- The ACT’s 2021–22 per capita greenhouse gas emissions were over 80% lower than the national per capita average (21.5 tonnes CO2-e in 2018–19). Only Tasmania has lower per capita emissions.
Sources of greenhouse gas emissions
- Although not reported for the ACT’s greenhouse gas targets, scope 3 emissions were responsible for 94% of the Territory’s total carbon footprint in 2020. For the ACT to achieve, or at least approach, a true net zero emissions scenario, the ACT Government must consider scope 3 emissions.
- Since achieving the 100% renewable electricity supply target in 2020, transport and the phasing out of natural gas have become the ACT Government’s focus for future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
- In 2021–22, 58% of the ACT’s greenhouse gas emissions came from transport and 24% from stationary energy (mostly natural gas combustion, does not include electricity). These account for around 82% of the ACT’s total emissions. The remaining emissions were from industrial processes and product use (9%), waste processing and decomposition (8%), aviation (2%) and agriculture (less than 1%).
- In 2021–22, total emissions were reduced by 10% due to carbon sequestration from land use change (change in land vegetation cover) and forestry.
- Since 2012–13, there have been no significant reductions in emissions for either transport or stationary energy (mostly natural gas combustion). Consequently, the ACT still has many challenges to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to meet legislated future emissions targets.
- In 2021–22, emissions from diesel vehicles contributed 40% of total transport emissions, compared to 23% in 2012–13. This has significantly increased the proportional contribution of diesel to total transport emissions and means that diesel-powered vehicles are contributing disproportionally higher emissions compared to petrol vehicles.
- Around 85% of stationary energy emissions (which does not include electricity) come from natural gas combustion. Per capita emissions from natural gas have declined due to preferences for electricity, improvements in gas appliance efficiency and limited gas connections in new dwellings. However, this decrease in per capita gas use appears to be slowing and total natural gas use has increased in recent years.
- Emissions from waste were greater in 2020–21 and 2021–22 compared to previous years, with 2020–21 having the highest emissions in the 2012–13 to 2021–22 period.
Management
Context
The ACT is responding to climate change with two policy approaches — reducing its own scope 1 and scope 2 greenhouse emissions and developing strategies to adapt to the changed climatic conditions which are projected for the future. As a small jurisdiction with a population of less than half a million people, the ACT is well-placed to trial approaches to emissions reduction which may be useful to other governments seeking to employ them at a larger scale.
This section will focus predominantly on policy and legislation related to climate change adaptation. For more information about the ACT Government’s approach to addressing the Territory’s carbon emissions refer to Human Settlements.
It should be noted that scope 3 emissions, which make up 94% of ACT’s carbon footprint, are not directly addressed through ACT Government policy at this time. This is a major policy gap.

Policy framework
The Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010 legislates the ACT’s target to achieve net zero carbon emissions by June 2045, and outlines some of the ways this will be achieved. It also establishes the Climate Change Council to advise the Minister on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
The ACT’s Climate Change Strategy 2019–25 is the main policy instrument for implementing the ACT’s climate change reduction actions. It articulates a vision that “By 2045 the ACT will be a leading net zero emissions territory that demonstrates that a healthier, smarter future is possible”. It spells out the emission reduction targets to 2045 and identifies the actions to meet them. It also recognises that “Despite efforts to reduce emissions, the ACT community will experience an increasingly extreme and unpredictable climate”.
The Climate Change Strategy 2019-25 aims to embed the consideration of climate change in both Government and community decision-making. It specifies actions across different sectors (transport, built environment, natural environment, waste) and across different stakeholders (communities, businesses and the government). The actions are directed at combatting the drivers and impacts of climate change through reducing emissions, and increasing community resilience through adaptation measures. It seeks to leverage co-benefits to community such as cost savings, comfortable homes, and a more liveable city. It recognises that a collaborative approach with local communities and businesses is essential to get to net zero.
Canberra’s Living Infrastructure Plan: Cooling the City 2019 is a climate adaptation plan which aims to protect and enhance the city’s natural assets to create a climate-wise, prosperous and healthy city. It identifies challenges from climate change, urban growth and declining urban forests. It sets out a target to enhance Canberra’s urban environment with 30% tree canopy cover and 30% permeable surfaces by 2045, and actions to achieve this target through a series of programs that look at asset management systems, microclimate assessments, landscape plans, and demonstration projects for city cooling, local park upgrades, shade ways and urban design.
The Urban Forest Strategy 2021–2045 helps plan out the path to achieve some of the Living Infrastructure Plan target of 30% canopy cover by 2045. It sets out the ACT Government’s vision for a resilient and sustainable urban forest that supports a liveable city and the natural environment and contributes to the wellbeing of the community in a changing climate. The objectives of the strategy are to protect urban forests, enhance tree cover, balance and diversify the urban forests, support biodiversity, develop infrastructure to support the urban forest and partner with the community to grow and maintain them.
In 2021 the ACT Government established the Office of the Coordinator General for Climate Action to coordinate and support the ACT Government’s ambitious agenda for climate action. Their role includes looking at policy and planning reform and facilitating some of the larger programs promised under the Climate Change Strategy 2019–25. The other responsibilities for delivery on the actions are split primarily across EPSDD, Community Services Directorate and the TCCS Directorate.
The ACT Government has also implemented a range of rules, incentives, and programs to support electrification, energy efficiency and local renewable energy. These include:
- not including gas infrastructure in new suburbs
- banning gas connections in suburban infill developments from 2023
- financial incentives to remove and replace wood burning heaters, and banning new heaters from 2045
- rebates through the Home Energy Support Program and the Business Energy and Water program
- the Renters Home Energy Program, which provides expert advice on making rental homes more energy efficient, and
- the Sustainable Schools Program to support schools to work towards zero emissions by 2040.
In particular, the focus on equity and low-income households to ensure programs in this area are not exclusionary is an area of strength for the ACT.
A Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard for Rental Properties (the Standard) in the ACT was introduced on 1 April 2023 under the Residential Tenancies Act 1997. The Standard requires all rental homes in the ACT to meet a new minimum energy efficiency standard for ceiling insulation. It intends to address the issue that many renters in the ACT are living in poor quality housing that is expensive to heat and cool, and does not meet community expectations around having a suitable home to help maintain health, comfort, security and wellbeing.
In 2019, a discussion paper was released on the ACT’s Sustainable Energy Policy for 2020–2025. Based on available information, the policy remains under review following the close of public comment. This means there does not appear to have been an energy policy in place following the expiry of the previous policy in 2020. The ACT has continued to develop and implement energy programs without an overarching energy policy framework.
The ACT Transport Strategy 2020 is an important complementary document to the Climate Change Strategy 2019–25, recognising that transport is the major contributor to the ACT’s greenhouse gas emissions. It discusses a range of ways to reduce vehicle emissions, ranging from encouraging active travel and use of public transport through to incentivising the purchase of zero emissions vehicles. The ACT’s Zero Emissions Vehicles Strategy 2022–30 and its predecessor the Zero Emissions Vehicles Action Plan 2018–2021 provide more detail on how a transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles will be achieved. An Active Travel Plan to encourage walking and cycling is also in the final stages of development. Within government, the public transport vehicle fleet will shift to zero emissions over the next 20 years guided by the Zero Emissions Transition Plan for Transport Canberra 2020.
Policy Effectiveness
The ACT has seen success in a number of its policy interventions to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.
An independent review[10] of the Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010 conducted in 2021 found that it had been highly effective in allowing the ACT Government to set the groundwork for action, develop policy and successfully meet emissions reduction and renewable energy targets. In addition, the legislation was found to be appropriate to meet ACT’s climate objectives to 2030 and beyond. The interim targets have been particularly effective as per the review, as seen with the 2020 target of 40% emission reduction.
Each financial year, the Minister for Water, Energy and Emissions Reduction must prepare a report[11] to identify actions taken during the year to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This report also captures data, monitors and reports on the progress of the Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025. The most recent report shows that progress has been made on many of the policy measures proposed in the Strategy particularly those on behaviour change in community and businesses, partnerships and capacity building. Many of the proposed planning and legislative changes are in progress. Initiatives relating to waste and biodiversity are well advanced or already in place. Some climate-wise built environment initiatives and just transition initiatives appear to have been delayed.
Addressing climate change drivers and reducing climate impacts will require multiple actions across various policy areas. Consideration needs to be given to the expected outcomes of each action, their contribution to broader government objectives and the ways in which outcomes complement each other. The ACT Transport Strategy 2020 is an example of where this has been done well, as it was developed in coordination with the ACT Planning Strategy 2018 and Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025. This co-development recognises the critical partnership between transport and land use to meet the objectives for the ACT Government established in the 2016 Canberra: A Statement of Ambition. Perhaps because of this coordinated approach, there are a number of achievements in the transport/climate change domain including:
- the government vehicle fleet has been transitioned to zero emissions
- the use of electric scooters and similar e-mobility devices on shared paths and footpaths has been legalised
- the Canberra Electric Bike Library has been established
- full stamp duty exemption and an ongoing annual registration discount of 20% for zero emissions vehicles
- planning rules amended to install public electric vehicle charging without a development application, and
- two-year registration waiver for Zero Emissions Vehicles.
The various policies, programs and financial incentives in place to encourage uptake of zero emissions vehicles appear to be having a tangible effect, as the number of these vehicles is increasing steadily. Since 2019, electric vehicle numbers have roughly doubled annually and in the first half of 2023 one in five newly registered vehicles were electric (see Human settlements — Indicator HS4: Transport).
Many of the policies and strategies relating to climate adaptation are relatively new and will have long timeframes to reach their goals and measure their effectiveness. The challenges of implementing this work can be seen for example in the planting of trees as part of the Urban Forest Strategy 2021–2045, which is highly dependent on external factors such as weather conditions, contractor availability and supply of planting stock. Even with optimal planting conditions it will take many years for the trees to grow before it can be determined whether canopy targets and anticipated cooling effects are realised.
In response to the need for climate adaptation for our native biodiversity, Conservation Research in EPSDD is commencing a Climate Adaptation for Nature framework. This framework is intended to support adaptive management of the environment to try and address some of the impacts of climate change on local species and ecosystems.
Asset upgrades and replacements similarly have long timeframes and lifespans, and it will be important to ensure that ACT Government invests in future-proof public infrastructure that will be fit for purpose in an altered climate. The Minister for Climate Action noted during hearings for the Select Committee on Estimates 2023–2024 that “there is not a comprehensive…single climate mitigation or adaptation framework [for government assets] at this point”.
Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions,
which make up around 94% of ACT’s carbon footprint, are not directly addressed through ACT Government policy at this time. This is a major policy gap as it means that the ACT’s net zero emissions target does not give any consideration to the vast majority of emissions for which the ACT is responsible.
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